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Luck or Skill
“Beeeep beeeep bee!” It was just another day. My hand slapped the alarm clock, giving me 15 extra minutes of sleep. Those 900 seconds flew by (as usual), allowing 30 minutes for me to shower, get dressed, eat breakfast, brush my teeth, and ultimately leave for work. I was exhausted. For almost 20 straight years, I worked at Donatos, yet, like many Americans, I lived paycheck to paycheck. My savings account had less than a few hundred bucks. I did not have an emergency fund, and I never even heard the words 401k or Roth IRA mentioned until this past year.
At 58 years old, I still questioned the purpose of life. I knew I would never be able to retire. My 39-year-old son, who I had not seen since last year, was following the same path as me. Plus, the majority of people I talked to were just acquaintances at work. That was a summary of my life up until January 13, 2020. Except this day was not just another day.
I arrived at work right at 10:45 am. For the first few hours, everything was going completely normal. I received a few calls, and I delivered each order on time. Some people were nice enough to give me a small tip, but it was nothing abnormal. Then, around noon, I received a notification about an order for delivery. The meal was healthy, but a weird combo. It included our signature salad along with a side of wings.
About a half hour later, I left the shop, beginning the 15-minute drive to 148 North Street. On the way, something in particular caught my eye. I looked up at a bulletin board I had never seen before. It had a dark green background, a big yellow trophy, and letters that read, "Caesars Sportsbook". I picked up my phone and immediately looked it up. With my car swerving back and forth, I became fascinated with all of the games. I began to look up different questions I had. What does +160 mean? Can you actually win real money with Caesars? For the first time in a while, I started feeling a sense of inspiration. Then, without remembering my drive, I somehow arrived at the house. My life was back to normal, but only for a split second.
It was an old, but extremely wealthy house. Overgrown plants surrounded the outside, while the house itself looked to be covered in gray stone. I walked up the sidewalk with my feet sliding on little pebbles. Right as I lifted my arm to knock, the door was immediately opened. To my surprise, a young man opened the door. He was well over six feet tall, with short shorts and an Indiana State hoodie on. “Just in time,” he joked. Confused, I asked, “Just in time for what?” His face lit up. He started to explain how important his basketball game tonight was. “I was a fan of Indiana for 18 years. However, after having a great senior season in high school, I never received an offer. I instead was forced to go to a much smaller school. And now. And now tonight is my chance to prove a point.” I could see the determination in his eyes. He was already dripping in sweat when I got there, but now I could see why.
As I walked back to my car, I thought about the young man. I hoped that he would win, and I wanted him to have a great game. Then, I sat back down in my car. Right as I turned it on, the radio started blasting. “Caesars Sportsbook, let the bets begin,” it stated after a presumably longer audio. I was reminded of the billboard. “No way this was just a random occurrence,” I thought. Therefore, I immediately looked back at the Donatos order to remember the young man’s name. And over the next few hours, I called everyone I knew. I reached out to every individual at my work, in my community, and even in my family. Terrified, of classifying this as a sports bet, I told them I needed money for a business I was developing. And since many of them still did not have confidence in putting their money away with me, I guaranteed them I would repay them everything if the “business” did not work out.
After a few hours of conversations, I somehow convinced over 100 people to invest in me. This was not a small deal either. Many of them lived similar lifestyles to me, but they all wanted to take a risk. With my little bit of money combined with their investments, I was able to raise just over 50 thousand dollars: by far the most money I had ever seen at once.
About an hour before tip-off, I calmly walked into Caesars Southern Indiana, ready for the biggest moment of my life. I walked up to the counter, to which I was greeted by a guy in a gray suit. Still wearing my Donatos gear, I showed him my ID and reached into my backpack to pull out every last dollar I had. The guy was shocked, looking at me as if I just committed a crime. I told him I wanted to create a two-leg parlay: Indiana State money line vs Indiana along with Quinn Shepards over in points. The guy stared at me. “Are you sure,” he jokingly questioned. “Yes,” I confidently answered. Immediately, he told me the total odds for the parlay would be +2600, meaning my 50k bet would turn into a total of $1,350,000. I couldn’t believe it. Either my life would be changed forever, or my life would be changed forever.
At tip-off, my body was shaking. I could not believe I just did this. However, on the first play of the game, Quinn got the ball and drilled a three. And from there, it only went uphill. Indiana State ended up winning 84-76, while Quinn dropped 32 points, easily hitting his over of 13.5. This was truly the happiest moment of my life. I quit my job immediately, thinking I was skilled enough to beat the sports books. And a couple of days later, I decided to tell all of my friends the partial truth, while hiding the actual odds of the bet. I repaid each of them a little more than quadruple what they put in, giving myself a total profit of over 1 million dollars. ___________________________________________________________________________
It has now been exactly two years since that day. I now work at Donatos again, and it turns out sports betting is in fact based on luck rather than skill.
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